Gridiron Challenge: Week 13 previewBy Tristan H. Cockcroft Each week, Tristan H. Cockcroft offers his strategies for the Gridiron Challenge game. Look for his best and worst matchups every Wednesday for the rest of the season.
Matchups I Like
Justin Fargas, RB, Raiders (DEN, 4.9 price tag): He's doing a fine job since taking over as the starter in Week 9, averaging 96 yards in four games and scoring twice, and that includes a brutal matchup against the Vikings in Week 11 (22 carries for 60 yards). Fargas has been up to the task of being a workhorse back, averaging 26 touches in those contests, and given a similar number in Week 13, he should be good for his third 100-yard effort of the season against the 29th-ranked Broncos run defense (146.7 yards per game). Joey Galloway, WR, Buccaneers (@NO, 5.2): Oh, it'll hurt him a bit if Jeff Garcia isn't healthy enough to play, but you can't ignore Galloway's remarkable track record against the Saints. He has scored a touchdown in each of his past six games against them, totaling nine in those contests, and has two 100-yard performances in their past three meetings. Even if it's Bruce Gradkowski starting at quarterback, remember that he started both of the team's games against the Saints in 2006, and in those, Galloway had a combined eight receptions for 207 yards and three scores. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers (@CAR, 6.3): Now there was the real Frank Gore, taking off for 214 total yards and two touchdowns in Week 12. He's finally healthy, and now he battles a Panthers team that regularly struggles to stop the run at home. The Panthers have allowed 128.0 yards per game and seven scores on the ground in five home games. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers (CIN, 7.5): I'm granting him a mulligan for his bad Week 12 effort. The field conditions were awful, and I'd have to think they'll be better this week, and the Steelers should be more prepared this time. Roethlisberger passed for 230 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against the Bengals in Week 8, but I'd expect more in the rematch. It's a home game this time, and that Cincinnati pass defense is simply awful, ranked dead last in opponents' passer rating (95.2). Hines Ward, WR, Steelers (CIN, 4.8): If Roethlisberger is a standout choice, it stands to reason his most trusted target, Ward, would be too. That's not all; Ward had eight catches for 88 yards and two scores against the Bengals in Week 8. For his career, he has 11 touchdowns against Cincinnati, easily his most against any opponent. Kurt Warner. QB, Cardinals (CLE, 6.4): The free-flinging Warner is apparently back, averaging 37 pass attempts in his past five games. That's the kind of number we want to see heading into a game against the Browns, who regularly engage their opponents in shootouts. Cleveland's pass defense ranks 30th in the league (266.5 YPG) and has allowed a league-high 25 touchdowns, making this a likely week to see the Warner of old. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys (GB, 4.6): Speaking of shootouts, doesn't that Cowboys-Packers tilt on Thursday night just feel like that style of game? After all, these are the NFL's top two offenses. Witten is Tony Romo's No. 2 passing target, with 89 targets to Terrell Owens' 106. That's closer than you thought, isn't it? Plus, the Packers have allowed 96 fantasy points to tight ends, second most in the NFL.
Sleepers
Jesse Chatman, RB, Dolphins (NYJ, 4.2 price tag): Ricky Williams' season-ending injury assures Chatman will be the focal point of the Miami offense the remainder of the season, health willing, of course. His ankle and neck injuries, obviously, will bear watching throughout the week, but if he's cleared to play without limitations, you can't ask for a better matchup than this one. The Jets have allowed 172.5 rushing yards per game the past five weeks, worst in the league, and rank 31st in the league for the season (150.5). Andre Hall or Selvin Young, RB, Broncos (@OAK, 4.9 or 4.0): There's only one instance in which neither player would be a standout start thanks to this matchup, and that's the unlikely event that the two split carries. Still, it's likely Young will get the bulk of the work if his knee lets him, while Hall would get the start if it doesn't. Check the news because whoever starts should have a field day -- think Kolby Smith's Week 12 -- against the Raiders, the league's worst run defense (153.6 YPG).
Matchups I'd Avoid
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs (SD, 4.8 price tag): He dominated the Chargers the last time these teams met, catching eight passes for 164 yards and a score in Week 4, but two things have changed since then. For one, San Diego has stepped up its performance in the secondary, notching 10 interceptions in its past five games. Reason 2: Youngster Brodie Croyle is now the Chiefs' starting quarterback, limiting his receivers' statistical upside. Reggie Bush, RB, Saints (TB, 5.7): A shin injury might limit him, but his track record against the Buccaneers is the real concern. In three career meetings against Tampa Bay, he has 1.5 yards per carry, his worst rate versus any team he has had 10 or more career attempts against. In those contests, he has averaged 57.7 total yards, with no scores. Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos (@OAK, 6.6): He passed for 269 yards and a touchdown but also had two interceptions against the Raiders in Week 2, and remember, that game was in Denver. This time, in Oakland, Cutler is a far riskier bet against a pass defense that, for the season, ranks fourth in the league (184.3 YPG). Also note that in road games, Cutler has lower passing yards per game (189.8-239.2) and a lower passer rating (83.0-94.3). Lee Evans, WR, Bills (@WAS, 4.3): The fact remains that he has had only two solid fantasy efforts all season, and two other respectable ones in 11 games, a terrible performance for a guy who finished 2006 so strong. J.P. Losman's dreadful start had a lot to do with that, but then Losman was also the architect behind Evans' two best outings of this season. Now Trent Edwards gets another shot, and let's not forget that in his three full games (Weeks 4-7) as the starting quarterback, Evans totaled 17 fantasy points. Ugh. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals (@PIT, 4.9): Finally, and for the first time since Week 2, we saw the real Rudi Johnson in Week 12, rushing 25 times for 88 yards and a score. Not a tremendous outing, but a good one, and at least something to encourage us a little. Here's the problem, though: In Week 13, Johnson gets the brick wall that is the Steelers' defense. In two meetings last season, he had 107 total yards and no scores against them, and they are, after all, ranked second in the league against the run (77.1 YPG). Eli Manning, QB, Giants (@CHI, 6.5): His first- and second-half season splits over the course of his career are quite troubling. In Games 1-8, he has 42 touchdowns, 23 interceptions and an 83.6 passer rating. In Games 9-16, though, he has 28 touchdowns, 36 interceptions and a 64.7 passer rating. Manning looked awful in Week 12, and while the Bears aren't the stingy defense they were a year ago, they've got enough skill to make him look bad again. Derrick Mason, WR, Ravens (NE, 4.4): Go ahead and make the case that the Ravens will be throwing all day against the Pats, and that Mason is their one truly reliable receiver. But when a team's passing game looks this inept, it's hard to trust even its No. 1 target. In spite of a consistent number of targets, Mason has but two touchdowns all season, and the last time he faced a defense this talented (Week 9, at Pittsburgh), he was held to 35 receiving yards.
The "Big Guns" to Avoid
They rank among the 10 most expensive at their respective positions, and the matchup dictates you'd be better off spending the money elsewhere. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (JAC, 7.8 price tag): Not that I'd ever advise a fantasy owner in a traditional league to sit him, but in the Gridiron Challenge, Manning does worry me a tad. For one, Marvin Harrison's absence does seem to be affecting him, or at least limiting his statistical upside. Also, the Jaguars play the Colts hard every time out. In Manning's past three games against them, he has averaged 263.7 passing yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions -- pretty ordinary numbers for him. Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens (NE, 6.3): Again, I don't think I'd sit McGahee in a traditional fantasy league, but there's a definite ceiling on what he'll provide you numbers-wise in the Gridiron Challenge. The Patriots rank fifth against the run (86.2 YPG), partially a result of mounting early leads and taking opposing runners out of the equation. McGahee doesn't seem likely to be shut down entirely as the Ravens' most reliable offensive weapon, but the chances of him going off for 100-plus yards and a score are slim, too.
Have No Fear
Their matchups might not look good, but you shouldn't be worried. Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals (@PIT, 7.7 price tag): Though the Steelers rank first in the league against the pass (152.1 YPG), Palmer is one quarterback who, historically, seems to have their number. In their past four meetings, he has averaged 219.0 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. Plus, with his defense so often putting him in passing situations, Palmer is airing it out 38 times per game this season, the highest rate of his career. Maybe he'll get picked, but I bet he'll score multiple times, too. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (DET, 6.0): If you like to worry about things like the numbers on paper, perhaps you're troubled by the Lions' No. 9 ranking against the run (95.8 YPG), or that they have allowed 71.0 rushing yards per game and one score in the past five weeks. Or you fret about Peterson's 20 carries for 66 yards and no scores against Detroit in Week 2. My advice: Don't. He's a game-changing talent and one who knows a playoff spot is at stake here. I bet he returns from injury with a standout effort.
Tristan's Gridiron Challenge Lineup: Week 13
Week 12 Recap: Brett Favre (27 points), Jamal Lewis (20) and the Steelers defense (23) were all good for 20-plus points, helping lead the way, and I'm convinced Lewis will likely remain in my lineup the rest of the season. Unfortunately, Vince Young put up a stinker (nine points) despite a cakewalk matchup, while D.J. Hackett got hurt. Hey, you can't win 'em all, but at least now I have a few repeat guys to keep in my lineup. Score: 129 points in Week 12, 1,229 points for the season (68.6 percent).
QB1: Brett Favre, Packers (@DAL, 7.9 price tag) Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here. |
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Prizes
Play Gridiron Challenge for your chance to win a $1,100 Best Buy Gift Card and the Ultimate Fan Pack.
Total ARV is $2,500

